A Great Start: New Local (St. Louis) Startup Event

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The local (St. Louis area) pitch-fest that we tried last Friday turned out to be a great success - lots of fun, some interesting ideas, and perhaps the best part was the beginning of an open, entrepreneur-oriented community event.

This is a photo of all of those who pitched their ideas - I think we had nearly 20 groups.

Btw, at the top of the list for doing better next time is bringing a legitimate camera ... but the iphone will have to do for this one.

Alex Miller has more detail (including a partial list of companies), and Dave Blankenship posted on his experiences as a participant.

I'm glad to see this get started. While there's no doubt that net-based communities are the lifeblood of our business, there's definitely real value to everyone to have a broader, deeper tech startup community within a beer's reach ... or at least a short drive!

Congrats to everyone who helped pull this together, including Jim Brasunas (ITEN), Alex Miller (Terracotta), Tom Nierman, our very own Kevin Haar and Jean Roberson and the rest of the mentors, the folks at BusyEvents (check out their photostream) and anyone who else who gave us a hand.

I'm definitely looking forward to the next one.

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Startups Happen ...

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Tonight's St. Louis pitch event is shaping up to be a lot of fun, and has now grown to include three steps. Even if you haven't signed up, come on down and join in the fun.

Pitch. If you're willing to stand up and give a very short pitch (max 3 minutes), show up by 4.

Watch. If you want to watch the best of the pitches, but don't have your own, show up at 5.

Hang Out. If you just want to hang out and meet other folks who just love starting stuff, then we're going to be at Schalfly's Tap Room at about 7:30 or so.

We're open to tweaking the format of course ... the main point is to bring together the startup community in and around the St. Louis area together. There's a lot of good stuff going on around the area already, and I'm excited about the prospects for more to come.

For more information go here or check out Puredanger's post as well.

See you tonight!

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WIll the Browser Eat the Desktop?

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Nova Spivack, founder and CEO of Twine has an interesting post at RWW. He makes a number of points

The desktop of the future is going to be a hosted web service

The Browser is Going to Swallow Up the Desktop

The focus of the desktop will shift from information to attention

Users are going to shift from acting as librarians to acting as daytraders.

The Webtop will be more social and will leverage and integrate collective intelligence

The desktop of the future is going to have powerful semantic search and social search capabilities built-in

Interactive shared spaces will replace folders

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Sorting through a couple of Capt. Obvious points ("The Webtop will be more social" ... you're kidding me?!?!?), he does make a few more interesting points. For example,

The focus of the desktop will shift from information to attention

is a really good point. Sure it's just the latest way to say "drinking from a firehose", yet it at least cleanly articulates what we all deal with daily, at levels that when we step back and think about it are nearly incomprehensible ... with much more to come.

A Bit of Wishful Thinking
Yet from my perspective at least a couple of the points just fall into true blue believer wishful thinking ... as in "But it JUST HAS to happen this way ... doesn't it?"

Ummmm ... no.

Let's pick one to illustrate:

The Browser is Going to Swallow Up the Desktop

That meme has been going around for quite a while. Probably the most famous, recent, and all around hard to escape incarnation of that philosophy is clearly the iphone. So let's take a look there and see what we can learn.

Great browser? Check.

Uber-outstanding display? Check.

Tons of mindshare with a maximum mind-control field targeted at making everyone believe that browser apps constituted everything anyone would ever need? Check.

Fast network? Check.

Ubiquitous? Check. Check. Check.

On the Road to Web-App Total Domination
Well we all know what happened with six months of this strategy ... Google unveiled Android, and Apple had no choice but to open up their platform (ok, not really very open ... but at least non-Apple employees can sort of write apps!).

The marketplace is voting at a furious pace, with more than 60,000,000 apps downloaded in the first month. Yes some folks extrapolate from their own first month experience and say that all of this will die down soon, to be replaced by the browser alone.

Yet I just don't see it.

The reality is that simply physics (bandwidth is NOT the same thing as latency) still dictates local responses for highly interactive tasks. No doubt much of that will (and already is, of course) done in browser apps.

But to contend that everything will move within the browser is just as unsupportable as saying something like "all development will be done in language <insert your favorite language / framework here>".

How many times has that prediction been made, in one form or another?

It's just silly, really.

All the Same
I understand that true blue believers can take exception to everything I've said, except for one thing .... 60,000,000 apps in one month, on the best mobile web browsing platform ever ... with some great tailored web apps (the newest google reader really is awesome).

Rather than arguing for what is effectively both the repeal of the laws of physics and universal world peace at precisely the same moment, perhaps it would be more productive to create more effective clients to use all that cloud-based services have to offer ...

... and build these inside or outside the browser, as best fits the circumstances.

A quick shout-out to Reuven Cohen for noticing this particular post, which I'd overlooked in a category in my RSS reader that had over 755 unread items in it ... today! Relatively ironic, wouldn't you say?

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Will 100% Utilization Kill Our Clouds?

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Over at the cloud computing group in googlegroups there is an interesting discussion about optimal load-utilization. Along the way Tim Freeman brought up an interesting point:

Are there hidden costs at running this high in the first place? We've heard the opinion from someone who is in charge of buying 100s-1000s of computers a year that commodity hardware isn't made to run at this capacity. That you're not getting as much value for your money over time because of far higher failure rates (i.e., that failures don't increase linearly with utilization and that there is usually a sweet spot)

So that got me to thinking ...

Heat Really Does Kill
Obviously there are many factors in failure rates of computing equipment (spinning or simply processors etc.), but assuming that you have not-horrible power cleanliness the #1 enemy will be heat.

Heat. Heat. Heat.

So, with that in mind one important way stuff becomes server-grade (i.e., expensive, non-commodity gear) is to get better at cooling than commodity gear. Interestingly, server-grade stuff also tends to try to get that last hard-to-obtain chunk of performance out of the components as well as provide varying amounts of built-in redundancy, both of which exacerbate the heat problems considerably, causing the heat-dissipation to get even better, which requires more power, etc.

So in that sense what Tim's contact has a point, since when running at full utilization most processors throw off lots of extra heat, necessitating (at the very least) extra gear to handle.

And there's always the chance that the heat will be poorly dissipated, thereby resulting in increased failures ... yet that does not mean that buying server-grade gear is the right way to go anymore. Far from it.

A Better Choice
A couple of choices come immediately to mind -

  • use lower-power components (as in laptop grade stuff). These will naturally generate less heat, and thereby tend to reduce their self-inflicted failure tendencies.
  • run much leaner power supplies than most folks want to supply off the shelf

There's other ideas - some interesting, some dumb - but those are a few for starters.

Is the Commodity Gear Today What We Need?
Interestingly enough, most of the stuff that folks have bought to build out grids has been server-grade in drag, more or less. Just look at the components and the power supplies - high energy consumption processors, big power supplies, beaucoup fans etc. Not always, of course, but that has generally been the norm.

In fact, it's this "server in disguise" gear that passes for commodity in most enterprise data centers today ... fine so far as it goes. As Cameron pointed out in the thread you can run the current commodity gear at 100% utilization with no particular increase in failure rates. True enough, but what if we think more aggressively?

In fact, let me go so far as to suggest that if we really are able to run at 100% for months without a failure, then we've massively overbuilt the "commodity" gear.

Back to what will be possible in changing our infrastructure as we make our transition to clouds - public or private.

This is the Key - Absolutomente Crucial!
Underlying all of the power / failure related infrastructure choices is an unspoken reality - the real key to using commodity at scale is to ensure that the application will survive the failure of individual computers / drives / switches / whatever without losing a darn thing.

Once you do that, at the application level, then you are free to experiment with different infrastructure choices to your hearts content, different utilization rates, whatever comes to mind - provided that your apps don't care.

In other words, many of the benefits that may result from cloud computing - flexibility, scalability, lower costs, reliability, and so on - are actually enabled at the application layer.

One more thing - when failure of individual computers doesn't matter to the application then you can pick lower power stuff that is also very cheap - now you're starting to talk about a great cloud infrastructure.

The New Black Commodity
So as you carry this thinking further then you can start to imagine a much more aggressive type of commodity, one as yet unrealized.

Start thinking of bare-bones, fairly dense components that are uber-cheap ... sort of a lego-block approach. Cheap as in $300 -$400 cheap all-up. Perfectly suited for enterprise-grade clouds - public or private - at least those that play by these new rules.

There was (and will continue to be) quite a bit more conversation on this point - it's one of the more interesting parts of commoditization. In any case, in a future post I'll outline some more thoughts on the "new commodity" that I believe is fundamentally possible.

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Private Clouds: Before and After

Ran across a funny pair of dialogues (from a Niraj J, obviously an app guy!) before and after the adoption of private clouds in a hypothetical enterprise. At least it would be funny if the before case wasn't so painfully true.

Before (edited for clarity):

Applications VP - I need to unarchive some 300 GB of data and then use it for some analytics that I need to perform at least once every month.

Infrastructure Guy - 1GB costs about X $ and 1 LPAR with 2 CPUS is about Y$ per year. You need to multiply this by 5 years to get the ROI calculation for your project.

Applications VP - Wow! Why is the cost 1.7 times Frys?

Infrastructure Guy- Well it is all the overhead - The Company needs to pay guys like us who ensure that additional storage is installed correctly and that your group adheres to all the norms we have established.

Applications VP- OK (whatever ... since I do not have any options!), when can I get it?

Infrastructure Guy- it will take 2-4 weeks after the purchase order is approved and quote submitted.

My only comment here is that it's probably more like 8-whenever weeks in most enterprise shops, not 2-4.

In any case, here's after:

Applications VP - I need to unarchive some 300 GB of data and then use it for some analytics that I need to perform at least once every month.

Infrastructure Guy - Here you go , call this API for Adding Storage and launching an instance. You will be charged by the hour.

Applications VP- Cool, I am charged ½ of what you guys charged me earlier and I have the ability to turn off my meter when I'm done.

Infrastructure Guy - Yes, They have cut down our group, and all my buddies who did not have scripting skills have been asked to go. I guess our overhead is now 1.1 X as compared to 1.7X. Besides if you consider the savings you get by switching your computing off when not needing it , we are probably cheaper than Frys.

On a serious note, this sort of on-demand flexibility will be just as appealing within an enterprise as it clearly has been outside.

Furthermore, I think it's likely to be just as appealing to the operations folks as it obviously will be the applications groups, for two halves of exactly the same reason - it makes life simpler.

It's just a matter of time.

Note that I'm not commenting here on whether the private cloud is built entirely within an enterprise, is provisioned on-demand from an external provider, or both. All of those are possible, and perhaps even likely. This is just to illustrate why people will - and do - care.

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